“The availability heuristic: instances in which a certain type of event is recent, emotionally vivid, or particularly memorable, this recent experience will dominate your estimate of the frequency of the event.”
—
Daniel Kahneman
Thinking, Fast and Slow (2011), Farrar, Straus and Giroux; originally in Kahneman & Tversky's research
Commentary
This heuristic explains systematic biases in probability judgment. After a plane crash, people overestimate air-travel risk; after media coverage of crime, people overestimate crime rates. Vivid, recent events 'loom large' in the mind, disproportionately influencing estimates.
This has profound implications for risk perception, political judgment, and decision-making under uncertainty. Media coverage, personal experience, and emotional intensity distort probability assessment. This explains moral panics, overestimation of rare risks (terrorism, plane crashes) and underestimation of common risks (traffic accidents, lifestyle disease).
Commentary
This heuristic explains systematic biases in probability judgment. After a plane crash, people overestimate air-travel risk; after media coverage of crime, people overestimate crime rates. Vivid, recent events 'loom large' in the mind, disproportionately influencing estimates.
This has profound implications for risk perception, political judgment, and decision-making under uncertainty. Media coverage, personal experience, and emotional intensity distort probability assessment. This explains moral panics, overestimation of rare risks (terrorism, plane crashes) and underestimation of common risks (traffic accidents, lifestyle disease).